摘要
Abstract
This paper discusses electric power demand in future 1 5 years in Guangdong province under the condition of econo-my entering into the New Normal step by step. Firstly,it forecasts economic development of Guangdong province on the ba-sis of analyzing economic development characteristic and influencing factors. Secondly,the paper analyzes historical elec-tricity consumption in Guangdong province,considers factors affecting increase of electric quantity and forecasts speed in-crease interval of electric quantity. Meanwhile,combining affect on electric power demand development by economic in-crease,industrial restructuring,urbanization rate,population increase,technical progress and industrial policy,unit con-sumption method of output value,elastic coefficient method and per capita household electricity consumption method was used for forecasting electricity consumption of the whole social of Guangdong province. Maximum load utilization hours of Guangdong province were analyzed and maximum electrical load in the future in Guangdong province was forecasted based on result of electric quantity forecasting.关键词
“新常态”经济/中长期电量预测/弹性系数法/人均用电量/经济发展预测Key words
the new normal economy/medium and long term electricity quantity forecasting/elastic coefficient method/per capita household electricity consumption/economic development forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学
