干旱地区农业研究Issue(1)：98-104,7.DOI:10.16302/j.cnki.1000-7601.2015.01.016
日尺度下的干旱区成龄枣树耗水量敏感因素建模分析
Modeling analysis on sensitive factors of water consumption for mature jujube tree under daily scale in arid area
摘要
Abstract
Taking the mature jujube tree in Akesu ,Xinjiang as the research object ,the average daily temperature (x1) ,relative humidity(x2) ,wind speed(x3) ,solar radiation(x4) ,atmospheric pressure(x5) ,soil moisture content in 0~100 cm(x6) and soil temperature in 0~20 cm(x7) as the model influnce factors ,has established the water con-sumption forecast model by using the PLSR method .On the basis of default factor method ,has analyzed the sensitivity of water comsuption to each factor ,furthermore using the gray relational analysis method to test and verify .The results showed that:The PLSR model had rather high accuracy (correlation coefficient r=0 .9789 ) ,not only quantitative fore-cast the water consumption of jujube tree (average relative error was 6 .4% ) ,but also explain the impact of each factor on water consumption through mechanism .The three factors as solar radiation ,soil moisture and temperature were the most sensitive factors on water consumption of jujube (sensitivity index were 3 .24 ,2 .18 and 2 .09 ,respectively ) .Based on the default factor method ,has sequenced the sensitive factors as ( x4> x1> x6> x3> x7> x2> x5 ) almost agreement with the calculated results by the grey relational analysis as(x4> x1> x6> x3> x7> x5> x2 ) ,especially the main in-fluence factors were completely consistent .关键词
枣树/耗水量/温度/土壤含水率/太阳辐射/偏最小二乘回归/灰色关联分析/干旱区Key words
jujube tree/water consumption/temperature/soil moisture/solar radiation/PLSR/grey relational analysis/arid area分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
魏光辉,马亮,马英杰,董新光..日尺度下的干旱区成龄枣树耗水量敏感因素建模分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,(1):98-104,7.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助（2013211B18）；新疆水文学及水资源重点学科资助 （）
