干旱地区农业研究Issue(3)：267-272,6.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.03.42
基于标准化降水指数 SPI 的泾惠渠灌区干旱演变对冬小麦气候产量的影响
Effect of drought evolution on climatic yield of winter wheat based on SPI in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District
摘要
Abstract
In order to study the influence mechanism of drought change on crop yield ,taking the Jinghuiqu Irriga-tion Distric (ID ) as the case study ,selected the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI ) as the drought evaluating index ,us-ing the methods of Mann-Kendall trend test and maximum entropy spectrum analysis to analyze the variation characteris-tics of drought in ID and the change rule of the climatic yield of winter wheat under drought evolution .The research showed that :(1 ) The real winter wheat yield in the ID has been showed a significantly rising trend ( Z=7 .6482 ) ,while the climatic yield was presented not obvious downward trend ( Z= -0 .5686 );(2 ) The general drought trend in the ID was significant (through significant test at 99% level ) , this trend was reached remarkable level in three seasons as spring ,summer and autumn;(3 ) The drought has existed periodic fluctuation of 16 years ,the variation period was 4 to 5 years ;(4 ) The drought situation in before planting as July to September and after planting as October to November had a great influence on climatic yield of winter wheat ,these were the key periods for influencing crop climatic yield ;(5 ) Climatic yield of winter wheat was closely related to SPI3-9 ,it can be explained 46 .21% of the yield change ;(6) With the change of the drought periodic cycle , r the correlation efficient of SPI3-9 with the climatic yield of winter wheat was increased from 0 .44 to 0 .74 ,the impact of drought on climatic yields was showed an increasing trend .关键词
标准化降水指数(SPI )/冬小麦/气候产量/干旱化趋势/泾惠渠灌区Key words
standardized precipitation index (SPI)/winter wheat/climate yield/drought tendency/Jinghuiqu Irri-gation District分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘彦平,蔡焕杰..基于标准化降水指数 SPI 的泾惠渠灌区干旱演变对冬小麦气候产量的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,(3):267-272,6.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划课题（2011BAD29B01）；国家自然科学基金项目（51179162）；高等学校学科创新引智计划项目 （）
