干旱地区农业研究Issue(4)：220-226,7.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2015.04.33
陕西省主要农业气象灾害分析及其对粮食产量的影响
Analyses of main agro-meteorological disasters and their impacts on food production in Shaanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
This paper studied the impacts of major agricultural meteorological disasters on grain production in Shaanxi Province .Based on the historical data of natural disasters and the grain yield data in Shaanxi province from 1978 to 2011 ,Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet were used in this paper to analyze the rates of some major agricultural meteorological disasters in Shaanxi province ,including droughts ,floods ,hail and frost .Then ,we used grey relational analysis method to dynamically analyze the correlations between the affected areas and grain yield resulted from these four major agro-meteorological disasters .Results showed that the correlation efficiencies by drought ,floods ,hail and frost were 0 .7806 ,0 .767 ,0 .7731 , and 0 .7355 respectively .From the disaster rate trends ,we could see that the drought disaster rates in the 1980s changed slightly ,which displayed an upward trend from the early 1990s to 2002 ,and a down-ward trend after 2002 .The frost showed an upward trend ,the hail was in a slight upward trend ,and the floods possessed a slight downward trend .M-K alternation test results showed that the alternation in drought disaster took place between 1984 and 2011 ,the alternation point in frost disaster appeared in 2003 ,and floods and hail did not had any obvious al-ternations in 33 years in Shaanxi province .The results of wavelet analysis showed that the drought stricken rate had sig-nificant quasi 2~3 a and quasi 2~4 a scale cycles ,and the intensities of these cycles were changed over time ;The hail stricken rate had significant quasi 2~3 a ,quasi 3 a ,quasi 3~4 a and quasi 2~6 a scale cycles ;The frost stricken rate had significant quasi 2~4 a and quasi 4~8 a scale cycles ;The flood stricken rate had significant quasi 3 a ,quasi 2~4 a and quasi 2~6 a scale cycles .关键词
气象灾害/粮食产量/受灾面积/陕西省Key words
meteorological disasters/food production/covered disaster areas/Shaanxi province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
孔坚文,王连喜,李琪,边超钧,江涤非..陕西省主要农业气象灾害分析及其对粮食产量的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,(4):220-226,7.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划“全球变化环境下作物产量的影响与适应监测评估技术” （）
