广西科学Issue(3)：255-259,5.
三维双层嵌套 Logistic 模型在海洋工程中的适应性研究
Adaptability Research of Three-Dimensional Nested Lo-gistic Model in Ocean Engineering
摘要
Abstract
Objective]With the rapid development of massive and complicated ocean engineering, the theory and application of multivariate extreme value distribution model become more im﹣portant than before.[Methods]This paper presents the process of the three-dimensional nested logistic model,trivariate extreme value distribution with marginals of generalized extreme value distribution,which is the unified form of three types of extreme value distribution and pre﹣cludes human's disturbance from arbitrary choice of distribution type.The joint distribution of three factors,which are annual maximum water level and the corresponding wave height and wind speed,is analyzed using observed data from Shidao observation station,where these three random variables are mutually correlated.The joint probability and associated return period could be easily derived from the model.[Results]The model is suitable for representing the joint distribution of problems involved three correlated factors in ocean engineering.[Conclu-sion]This model is adaptable and flexible than bivariate models.It contributes significantly to assess the risk associated with different hydrological problems which involve three factors.关键词
三维双层嵌套/Logistic 模型/联合概率/广义极值分布/重现期Key words
three-dimensional nested logistic model/joint probability/general extreme value dis﹣tribution/return period分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
曹雪峰,郭佩芳,石洪源..三维双层嵌套 Logistic 模型在海洋工程中的适应性研究[J].广西科学,2015,(3):255-259,5.基金项目
上海核工程研究设计院课题《滨海核电厂设计基准洪水概率分析研究》项目(编号:20130193)资助。 （编号:20130193）
