广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）Issue(2)：120-126,7.DOI:10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2015.02.019
南洞地下河最枯径流的周期变化及趋势分析
Analysis of Trend and Annual Lowest Runoff Periodic Variation in the Nandong Subterranean River System
摘要
Abstract
In order to serve a reference for the development and utilization of the water resources,the time series of lowest runoff in the Nandong subterranean river system from 1990 to 2013,as well as the variation trend,have been analyzed by using the methods of wavelet analysis and rescaled range analysis. The research results showed that the lowest runoff series have obvious multiple time scale properties, which has three main periods including 4 a,10 a and 15 a.And 10 a is the first main period,4 a and 15 a are second and third, respectively.Meanwhile, the tendency of lowest runoff in the Nandong subterranean river system in the fulture was also studied.For the time series of 4 a,10 a and 15 a,the Hurst indexes were of 0.315 6,0.573 28,0.740 43,respectively.The fulture trend of 4 a scale for the lowest runoff was contrary to the past,but the fulture trend of long scales such as 10 a and 15 a were similar to the changes in the past.关键词
最枯径流/时间序列/变化趋势/Morlet小波/重标极差分析法/南洞地下河Key words
lowest runoff/time series/variation trend/wavelet transform/rescaled range analysis/Nandong subterranean river system分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
覃星铭,蒋忠诚,蓝芙宁,罗书文,劳文科,吴华英..南洞地下河最枯径流的周期变化及趋势分析[J].广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2015,(2):120-126,7.基金项目
国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目基金资助(2011BAC09B02、2012BAC16B02) （2011BAC09B02、2012BAC16B02）
中国地质大调查项目基金资助(12120114062601) （12120114062601）
国家自然科学基金面上项目基金资助(41471447) （41471447）
广西自然科学青年基金项目基金资助(2013GXNSFBA019220) （2013GXNSFBA019220）
