工业技术经济Issue(5)：73-79,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2015.05.009
产业结构对煤炭消费的影响及实证分析--基于可变参数状态空间模型的动态研究
Empirical Analysis of the Effect of the Industrial Structure on Coal Consumption Based Time -varying State Space Model
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between the industrial structure and coal consumption by using the co -integration re-lationship test and Time-varying State Space Model . The conclusion of the study shows that there is the long -term equilibrium relation-ship between the industrial structure and coal consumption . The pulling strength of the second industry on coal consumption is obviously higher than the impact of third industry of coal consumption . There is the one -way Granger causality from the industrial structure to the coal consumption . As can be seen from the result of variance decomposition , its contribution rate of coal consumption gradually decreased , the influence of the first industry and the third industry of coal consumption gradually increased , then the impact of the first industry and the third industry declines gradually and tends to be steady . From the state space model , the influence of the first industry on the coal con-sumption has basically negative influence . The marginal effects of the second industry of coal consumption since 1986 has continued growth , showing that the pulling effect of the second industry of coal consumption is very obvious , but the marginal effect of third industry of coal consumption since 1986 showed a downward trend . This shows that , the coal consumption is still mainly relied on the development of the second industry . China's economy is in the industry structure adjustment and optimization and upgrading , in which process the coal con-sumption will show a downward trend or in decline , which contributes to China's energy consumption upgrading and low carbon economic development .关键词
煤炭消费/产业结构/状态空间模型Key words
coal consumption/industry structure/state space model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
雷强..产业结构对煤炭消费的影响及实证分析--基于可变参数状态空间模型的动态研究[J].工业技术经济,2015,(5):73-79,7.基金项目
世界煤炭协会（Word Coal Association ， WCA ）和神华集团国际合作研究项目---2013年科技创新项目之重大宏观战略研究课题“未来世界煤炭工业发展趋势研究”（项目编号SHGF－13－97）的阶段性研究成果。 （）
