工业技术经济Issue(7)：113-121,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2015.07.014
分行业技术进步对就业的动态影响研究--基于中国34个工业行业1980～2011年的数据
Dynamic Effects of Industry -level Technical Progress on Employment---Based on 34 Industries of China from 1980 to 2011
摘要
Abstract
Based on 34 industries of China from 1980 to 2011 , this paper analyzes the dynamic effect of industry -level technical progress on employment and finds the following results :technical progress has made statistical positive effect in short time on employment of 12 industries include industrial machinery , transportation , electrical machinery , office equipment and instruments , furniture manufactur-ing etc . However this “creation effect” will gradually decrease over time until little effect in long term . On the contray , for drink indus-try , black metal mining and quarrying , electric steam and oil processing industry , the technical progress statistically decreases the demand of employment , which cause the “damage effect” , however this “damage effect” will to opposite direction , and became the “creation effect” over time , and finally became none effect . The implication is to strengthen the support on high technology and media high technol-ogy industry , to educate the junior college student for skill -intensive industries such as engineering industry , transportation and to develop the unemployment insurance and re-employment training system for drink and black metal mining and quarrying industry .关键词
技术进步/就业效应/VAR模型/工业行业/动态效应Key words
technical progress/employement effect/VAR model/industry sectors/dynamic effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
姜金秋,杜育红..分行业技术进步对就业的动态影响研究--基于中国34个工业行业1980～2011年的数据[J].工业技术经济,2015,(7):113-121,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金教育学重大（点）课题“跨越中等收入陷阱教育的作用研究”（课题编号AFA110002）。 （）
