华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）Issue(4)：54-64,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-5641.2015.04.007
长江河口径流量与海平面上升对气候变化及人类活动的响应
Resp onses of river discharge and sea level rise to climate change and human activity in the Chang jiang River Estuary
摘要
Abstract
Climate change and human activity result in the variations in river discharge and sea level rise, both of which are very important for setting the boundary conditions of a numerical model. Thus, to obtain proper boundary conditions, this study presents pro-jected variations in the amounts of Changjiang river discharge and sea level rise caused by climate change and human activity in 2030, 2050, and 2100. Considering the Three Gorges Dam closure in 2003 and utilizing the historical river discharge data at Datong Station from 1865 to 2002, the river discharge variations resulting from the extrapolation of historic data and climate models are almost identical. The mean river discharge in January and February will reach 12 348, 12 683, and 13 522 m3·s−1 in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, due to climate change. In the past 20 years, the rate of absolute sea level rise was approximately 2.5 mm·a−1 in the Changjiang River Estuary. In accordance with the observed tidal data that based on the sea level change over time analysis-based forecasting model, the abso-lute sea level rise will be 49.1, 148.1, and 395.6 mm in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, compared to the 2012 levels. The saltwater intrusion simulation numerical model for the Changjiang River Estuary must consider the impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir and South-to-North Water Diversion on the river discharge. The earth crust and land subsi-dence should also be considered for an accurate determination of the relative sea level rise. These values are presented in this paper for each prediction period.关键词
长江河口/气候变化/人类活动/径流量/海平面上升Key words
Changjiang River Estuary/climate change/human activity/river dis-charge/sea level rise分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
朱建荣,裘诚..长江河口径流量与海平面上升对气候变化及人类活动的响应[J].华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2015,(4):54-64,11.基金项目
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目（2010CB951201) （）
国家自然科学基金(41176071) （41176071）
