郑州大学学报（医学版）Issue(2)：164-167,4.DOI:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6825.2015.02.005
几种预测模型对中国梅毒发病率预测效果的比较
Efficacy of different prediction models in forecasting incidence rate of syphilis in China
摘要
Abstract
Aim:To compare the effect of different prediction models in forecasting the incidence rate of syphilis in China and screen the optimal model .Methods:GM(1,1), trend extrapolation model and ARIMA model were developed based on the yearly incidence rate of syphilis in China from 2004 to 2012 .Relative error was used to evaluate the forecas-ting effect of the three models .The model with the least relative error was adopted to predict the incidence rate of syphilis from 2014 to 2016 .Results: The incidence rate of syphilis was on the trend of increasing and the average development speed was 1.173.Link relative ratio growth speed was on the trend of decreasing .The predicted value by Cubic model matched with the observed value better than GM (1, 1).The average relative error of Cubic model and GM (1, 1) to his-torical data was 1.431%and 7.560%, which showed Cubic model was better than GM (1, 1).The yearly incidence rate of syphilis in China was a white noise series (χ2 =7.990,P=0.239), which showed ARIMA model was not suitable for predicating incidence rate of syphilis .The predicated incidence rate of syphilis in China from 2014 to 2016 by Cubic model was 29.553/100 000,26.293/100 000 and 20.831/100 000, respectively.Conclusion:Cubic model is better in predic-ting incidence rate of syphilis in China .关键词
梅毒/发病率/预测Key words
syphilis/incidence rate/forecasting分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
王小丽,杨永利,施学忠,万燕丽,毛赛彩,王莹,惠晓庆,田翔宇..几种预测模型对中国梅毒发病率预测效果的比较[J].郑州大学学报（医学版）,2015,(2):164-167,4.基金项目
国家“十二·五”科技重大专项2012ZX10004905；河南省医学科技攻关计划项目201303003 （）
