化工进展Issue(4)：965-969,5.DOI:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2015.04.011
国际石化工程项目供应链总建设成本的敏感性分析
Sensitivity analysis of total construction cost of supply chain in international petrochemical engineering project
高宁 1高秋菊 2孙巍 1张新宇1
作者信息
- 1. 北京化工大学化学工程学院膜分离过程与技术北京市重点实验室，北京 100029
- 2. 中国石化长城能源化工有限公司，北京100120
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
With economic globalization,more overseas petrochemical engineering projects are constructed by Chinese companies. Many uncertainty factors in the supply chain of international petrochemical engineering project are resulted from the characteristics of petrochemical engineering projects and global procurement. In order to analyze the influence of uncertainty factors on international petrochemical engineering projects,an overseas ethylene cracking project was taken as example. According to the characteristics of the actual project,an evaluation model of total construction cost of supply chain was set up,and purchasing price,unit freight cost,storage time and exchange rate of currency were chosen for sensitivity analysis. By calculating the sensitivity coefficient of each factor,the sensitive factors of the total construction cost of supply chain in petrochemical engineering project were identified. Purchasing price and exchange rate were found to be more sensitive and corresponding solutions were also discussed. The evaluation model of total construction cost and the method of sensitivity analysis are applicable for supply chain in international petrochemical engineering project.关键词
石化工程项目/供应链/建设成本/敏感性分析Key words
petrochemical engineering project/supply chain/construction cost/sensitivity analysis分类
化学化工引用本文复制引用
高宁,高秋菊,孙巍,张新宇..国际石化工程项目供应链总建设成本的敏感性分析[J].化工进展,2015,(4):965-969,5.
