海洋科学Issue(4)：71-80,10.DOI:10.11759/hykx20120829002
可能最大风暴潮风险评估中各等级热带气旋设定方法
Parameterization of synthetic tropical cyclones at various scales for probable maximum storm surge risk modeling
摘要
Abstract
The parameterization of Probable Maximum Tropical Cyclones (PMTC) is of great importance to the computation of Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS) for emergency evacuation planning at different scales of tropical cyclones. Based on the Best Track Dataset (1949-2011) of the western north pacific from CMA and other two databases, the radius of maximum wind from JTWC and NOAA, the quantitative relationships between the maximum winds and other parameters of various scales wereanalyzed and modeled. A method wasdeveloped to set maximum sustained wind, central pressure, radius of maximum winds, forward velocity and direction, and then to synthetize the full track with the above parameters. Taking Liangjiang County, Fujian province as an example area, 216 tropical cyclones were synthetized for tropical cyclones scaled at typhoon, severe typhoon and super typhoon, with decay and no-decay at 3 major directions. At last, parameter sensitivity, Holland B parameter setting, wind field parameter setting and computation resource requirement, astronomical tide, and dam failure, etc. were dis-cussed.关键词
热带气旋/可能最大风暴潮/参数设定/风险评估Key words
Tropical Cyclone/Probable Maximum Storm Surge/Parameterization/Risk Assessment分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李颖,方伟华,林伟,叶妍婷..可能最大风暴潮风险评估中各等级热带气旋设定方法[J].海洋科学,2014,(4):71-80,10.基金项目
公益性行业科研专项(201305020) （201305020）
国家科技支撑项目(2012 BAK10B03) （2012 BAK10B03）
