舰船电子工程Issue(3)：92-96,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn1672-9730.2015.03.027
基于 MCMC的导弹多阶段可靠性评估*
Multi-stage Reliability Assessment of Missile Based on MCMC
朱会传 1徐廷学 2董琪1
作者信息
- 1. 海军航空工程学院研究生管理大队 烟台 264001
- 2. 海军航空工程学院兵器科学与技术系 烟台 264001
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The reliability evaluation model based on fuzzy theory ,Bayesian analysis method and MCMC is established for solving the problem of the small sample of missile reliability and mulit‐stage during the development of the missile .Ac‐cording to the expert information and fuzzy theory ,the prior distribution of reliability is determined .The posterior distribu‐tion is given by making use of the Bayesian formula .The reliability assessment of the every stage of the missile equipment is verified by sampling simulation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Gibbs Calculate method .Finally ,an example is used to il‐lustrate the effective of the model ,and provide a new method for the reliability‐grow th assessment .关键词
可靠性评估/仿真/马尔可夫/蒙特卡罗Key words
reliability assessment/simulation/Markov/Monte Carlo分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
朱会传,徐廷学,董琪..基于 MCMC的导弹多阶段可靠性评估*[J].舰船电子工程,2015,(3):92-96,5.
