电力系统保护与控制Issue(15)：117-122,6.
基于自适应的动态三次指数平滑法的风电场风速预测
Self-adaptive and dynamic cubic ES method for wind speed forecasting
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid development of wind power in recent years, to achieve more accurate predictions of wind speed on wind farm has gradually become an hot issue in research. To improve the wind speed forecasting accuracy for wind farm, a new self-adaptive and dynamic forecasting method is presented, which is based on the wind speed time series and traditional cubic exponential smoothing (ES) method. According to the principle of minimum error sum of squares, the smoothing factor is chosen with blanket search method and changed in time. Then one-step or multistep wind speed forecasting can be done with the new method. By comparing with the traditional cubic exponential smoothing method and gray model forecasting method, it can be proved that the self-adaptive and dynamic forecasting method in wind speed forecasting is accurate and efficient.关键词
自适应/指数平滑法/风速预测/风力发电/平滑系数Key words
self-adaptive/exponential smoothing method/wind speed forecasting/wind power/smoothing factor分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王国权,王森,刘华勇,薛永端,周平..基于自适应的动态三次指数平滑法的风电场风速预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,(15):117-122,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（51077090）；国家863高技术基金项目（2012AA050213）；国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院规划评审中心KJ〔2013〕94号项目资助This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51077090) and National High-tech R & D Program of China (863 Program)(No.2012AA050213) （No.51077090）
