电力系统保护与控制Issue(4)：108-114,7.
基于ARIMAX模型的夏季短期电力负荷预测
Summer short-term load forecasting based on ARIMAX model
摘要
Abstract
Summer short-term load forecasting in the city is not only related with the past power load data and affected by temperature, wind, precipitation and other factors, etc. Mutation structure is obvious in this data. In order to forecast summer short-term power load in the city, this paper establishes the ARIMAX model between the power load sequence and the input sequence "temperature" based on Cointegration Relation Theory by SAS, fully exploits self-relevant information of the internal sequence as well as the correlation between sequences. It can be seen from the minimum amount of information standards "AIC-SBC", the amount of information about ARIMAX model is smaller than the classic time series method ARMA model and the relative error is smaller. The fitting results are more accurate. This model has a high value under the presence of mutation structure and significant influence factors in the short-term load forecasting field.关键词
短期电力负荷预测/时间序列/协整理论/ARIMAX模型/突变结构Key words
short-term load forecasting/time series/cointegration theory/ARIMAX model/mutant structure分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
崔和瑞,彭旭..基于ARIMAX模型的夏季短期电力负荷预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,(4):108-114,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(70671039) This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.70671039) （70671039）
