电力系统保护与控制Issue(10)：79-84,6.
考虑融冰因素的输电线路覆冰故障概率计算
Fault probability calculation of transmission line considering ice melting factors
摘要
Abstract
The impacts of internal and external ice melting factors on ice load are analyzed according to heat balance equation of ice surface, and then the landform factor and the increased equivalent radius of iced line are taken into account for ice load and wind load calculation. The measured meteorological data such as rainfall, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, the power grid operation information, and the monitoring ice thickness information are used to establish the icing-thickness growth forecasting model of transmission line. The framework of icing fault probability calculation is formed via the icing overload mechanism of transmission line. The combined influence of icing-thickness and wind speed on transmission lines is analyzed from the standpoint of mechanics, and the fault probability of transmission line is achieved using exponential model that reflects metal bearing limit characteristic. The actual example verifies that the calculated icing fault probability of transmission lines is consistent with the actual fault trend, and the model can fully verify the correlation between icing fault probability and the actual weather condition.关键词
输电线路/覆冰/外部融冰/内部融冰/故障概率Key words
transmission line/icing/external ice melting/internal ice melting/fault probability分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
朱斌,潘玲玲,邹扬,李峰,冯树海,徐鹏..考虑融冰因素的输电线路覆冰故障概率计算[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,(10):79-84,6.基金项目
国家电网公司科技项目“基于态势感知的电网运行轨迹表征方法研究”(DZ71-13-039)；北京市自然科学基金资助项目(3132035) （DZ71-13-039）
