极地研究Issue(1)：47-55,9.DOI:10.13679/j.jdyj.2015.1.047
气候系统模式对于北极海冰模拟分析
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF ARCTIC SEA ICE SIMULATION IN CLIMATE SYSTEM MODELS
摘要
Abstract
We evaluated the capability of simulation of Arctic sea ice for the 5 th phase of the Coupled Model Inter-com-parison Project (CMIP5) models in comparison with satellite data.The results showed that the spatial distribution of sea ice and the seasonal change characteristics are captured well by most of the models.Observations from 1979 to 2005 have revealed a decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice and this was simulated by all the models, but with large differences in magnitude.In response to a 1.0℃increase in surface air temperature, the extent of Arctic sea ice reduces by 0.4 ×106 km2 , whereas the uncertainties of the climate models indicate a decrease of ice extent ran-ging from 0.62—1.68 ×106 km2 for a similar temperature rise.关键词
北极海冰/气候系统模式/CMIP5Key words
Arctic sea ice/coupled climate model/CMIP5引用本文复制引用
邱博,张录军,储敏,吴统文,谭慧慧..气候系统模式对于北极海冰模拟分析[J].极地研究,2015,(1):47-55,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（40975040）和公益行业专项（气象）（GYHY201106035， GYHY201006018）联合资助 （）
