计算机工程Issue(10)：155-160,167,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-3428.2014.10.030
基于观点动力学的在线评分人数预测
Number Prediction for Online Rating Based on Opinion Dynamics
摘要
Abstract
Most studies of opinion dynamics adopt Agent-based modeling and simulation for theoretical research and have serious gap with the real social problems. Aiming at this problem,this paper verifies and improves the interpretation and forecasting capabilities of the model with social statistical data of online rating. On the process of online rating,the individual opinion is influenced by its initial opinion and the group’ s opinions. The final opinion determines whether the individual to join the group and makes a rate or not. The rating of the individual affects the opinions and the behaviors of subsequent individuals. A simple dynamic model with continuous opinion based on this process is introduced to predict the number of personnel in online rating. It carries out experiments with the online rating data of film on the Internet website of Douban and analyses the effects of change of score proportion. Experimental results show that the model can effectively predict the number of online rating;Individual final opinion is mainly affected by the opinions of bad-normal-good in the group and almost has nothing to do with its initial opinion;The larger deviation of the Poisson parameter to optimum value leads to the lower accuracy of prediction.关键词
在线评分/观点动力学/模型预测/连续观点/泊松分布/实验验证Key words
online rating/opinion dynamics/model prediction/continuous opinion/Poisson distribution/experimental verification分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
苏炯铭,刘宝宏,李琦,马宏绪..基于观点动力学的在线评分人数预测[J].计算机工程,2014,(10):155-160,167,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61374185)。 （61374185）
