计算机与现代化Issue(2)：14-18,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2475.2015.02.004
基于 ARMA 和 BP_AdaBoost 的组合销售预测模型研究
Combined Sales Prediction Model Based on ARMA and BP_AdaBoost
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, a combined sales prediction model is established.The historical sales data is nonlinear, time-varying time series.It consists of two parts, the linear and nonlinear.By using the ARMA model, the lin-ear part can be predicted while the nonlinear part can be predicted by using BP_AdaBoost model.Then the two prediction results are added together.The combination model overcomes the problem of low accuracy by using ARMA model alone.What’ s more, it also overcomes the problems that BP neural network model is easy to fall into local minimum.The experiments show that the combination model can improve the accuracy of sales prediction and reflect market rules more accurately and comprehensively.关键词
ARMA/BP神经网络/AdaBoost算法/预测/组合模型Key words
ARMA model/BP neural network/AdaBoost algorithm/prediction/combination model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
闫博,周在金,李国和,齐佳..基于 ARMA 和 BP_AdaBoost 的组合销售预测模型研究[J].计算机与现代化,2015,(2):14-18,5.基金项目
国家高新技术研究发展计划（2009AA062802）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（60473125）；中国石油（CNPC）石油科技中青年创新基金资助项目（05E7013）；国家重大专项子课题 （）
