交通标准化Issue(23)：112-114,118,4.
基于水均衡方法的隧道涌水量概率预测
Probabilistic Prediction of Water Inflow into a Tunnel Using Water Balance Method
王晓明 1曹正波2
作者信息
- 1. 河北省交通规划设计院，河北 石家庄 050011
- 2. 河北工业大学土木工程学院，天津 300401
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Accurate evaluation of water inflow into a tunnel is of significance for the tunnel construction, reducing the risk, design of waterproofing and drainage. In the paper, a probabilistic analysis of water in⁃flow into Shuiyu Tunnul in Hebei Province is carried out using precipitation method and Monte Carlo tech⁃nique. First, the distribution type and characteristic values of three random variables are determined. A thousand simulations are performed to obtain the histogram of the predicted water inflow and the value of a 5%confidence probability is selected as the predictive value. The findings show that the water inflow al⁃most obeys normal distribution, the mean value is 56.215m3/d and the predictive values is 89.340m3/d. The paper proposes a probabilistic method for prediction of water inflow into a tunnel, which can serve as reference.关键词
隧道/涌水量/降水入渗法/蒙特卡洛技术/概率预测Key words
tunnel/water inflow/precipitation/Monte Carlo technique/probabilistic prediction分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
王晓明,曹正波..基于水均衡方法的隧道涌水量概率预测[J].交通标准化,2014,(23):112-114,118,4.
