交通标准化Issue(2)：58-64,7.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2015.02.011
基于BP神经网络的南宁市公路货运量预测
Freight Volume Forecasting in Nanning Based on BP Neural Network
安然 1华光 1董娜1
作者信息
- 1. 交通运输部科学研究院，北京 100029
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In order to forecast the highway freight volume effectively, a forecasting model of highway freight volume was constructed by using the BP neural networks based on the history data of highway freight volume of Nanning. The model was coded and operated under the environment of MATLAB soft⁃ware, and the predictive value was got by training and studying the data. This forecasting model of freight volume which was based on BP neural network was proven to be effective though the example analysis. In order to prove the differences between different forecasting methods, the trend extrapolation method, three exponential smoothing method, and gray prediction method were used to forecast the freight volume of Nanning. And through comparative analysis, the relative error of different methods can be got. It is observed that the freight volume forecasting model based on BP neural network has a bigger superiority than traditional forecasting method. The BP neural network model can reveal the nonlinear re⁃lation of freight volume, and fit the raw data accurately.关键词
BP神经网络/公路/货运量/预测模型/MATLAB编码Key words
BP neural network/highway/freight volume/forecast model/MATLAB code分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
安然,华光,董娜..基于BP神经网络的南宁市公路货运量预测[J].交通标准化,2015,(2):58-64,7.
