交通信息与安全Issue(2)：28-33,6.DOI:10.3963/j.issn1674-4861.2014.02.006
基于 Logistic 回归模型的三线城市道路事故数据分析
Traffic Accident Data Analysis of Third-class Urban Roadways Using Logistic Regression Models
摘要
Abstract
According to the statistical data of Urumqi City from 2006 to 2010 ,nine different crash types of traffic accidents on urban roadways were selected respectively as the dependent variables .Furthermore ,nine factors were select-ed as the independent variables ,in aspects of road facilities and road environment .Based on Binary Logistic Regression model ,this paper established linear correlative models between crash types and nine affecting factors ,evaluated the model parameters ,analyzed the reliability and fitting degree of the model ,and investigated the impact that different independent variables combination have on the dependent variables .The paper also predicted the risk of each crash types under various conditions by using a multi-Logistic model ,and compared the prediction with the actual cases ,and tested the fitting effi-ciency of the model used .关键词
城市道路/事故形态/Logistic回归模型Key words
urban roadways/crash type/Logistic regression model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
邓瑶望,李凌宇,陈雨人..基于 Logistic 回归模型的三线城市道路事故数据分析[J].交通信息与安全,2014,(2):28-33,6.基金项目
新疆乌鲁木齐市科学技术局项目（批准号H101326001）、国家自然科学基金（批准号51078270）资助 （）
