交通运输工程与信息学报Issue(2)：28-35,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-4747.2014.02.008
交通方式划分离散选择模型的比较研究
Comparative Study of Discrete Choice Mode in Mode Split
摘要
Abstract
Five typical discrete choice models were introduced, which were MNL, NL, HEV, MNP and MMNL.The model characteristics and their features were discussed and compared. Then these models were used to study the mode split in a case, and to calibrate the model parameters. The result indicated that each model would have different representation in the same case. It was also found that NL model could solve the similarity in the alternative heterogeneity. Results from this analysis suggested that the error of MMNL was smallest,its prediction reliability was highest. MMNL model was a better model than the other four models in solving the heterogeneity and similarity problems and it could improve the model explanation power significantly,and was the most effective method to predict mode choice. The research is very important for transport mode split forecast, which indicates that the conclusion derived from only one model in the existing researches may be not reliable.It should be chose cautiously according to the characteristics of the models.关键词
离散选择模型/交通方式划分/MNL模型/NL模型/MMNL模型/HEV模型/MNP模型Key words
Discrete choice models/traffic mode split/MNL model/NL model/MMNL model/HEV model/MNP model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
陈先龙..交通方式划分离散选择模型的比较研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2014,(2):28-35,8.基金项目
2011年广州市科技计划项目《基于低碳的城际和城市一体化轨道交通的客流预测研究》 （）
