江西农业学报Issue(3)：83-86,4.
基于回归和M－K方法的盘锦气温时间序列分析
Analysis of Air Temperature Time Series in Panjin Based on Regression and M-K Method
任智勇 1赵楠 1孙卓 1王斌飞 1张志国 1翟晴飞 2敖雪 3牛琳琳 1辛明月 1赵一俊1
作者信息
- 1. 辽宁省盘锦市气象局，辽宁 盘锦 124011
- 2. 辽宁省人工影响天气办公室，辽宁 沈阳 110166
- 3. 沈阳区域气候中心，辽宁 沈阳 110166
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
According to the daily maximum and minimum ground air temperature data of Weather Station of Dawa County in Panjin City during 1955~2009, through adopting the methods of regression analysis , 5-year moving average analysis , Mann-Kendall analysis and so on , we analyzed the annual and seasonal changing trends of maximum and minimum air temperature series as well as the air temperature mutation characteristics in Panjin city in recent 55 years.The results indicated that: from the year 1955 to 2009, both the maximum and the minimum annual average air temperature in Panjin showed a rising trend , and their tend-ency rate was 0.15 and 0.48 ℃/10a respectively at 99%confidence level.The changes in the maximum and minimum average air temperature in winter , spring and autumn all showed an upward tendency in general , and the minimum air temperature in winter had the largest contribution to seasonal average air temperature .The mutation of the maximum annual average air temperature appeared in the year 1991.The mutations of the minimum average air temperature in 4 seasons in Panjin city mainly happened during 1982~1984, being 2~4 years earlier than those in whole Liaoning province .The changes in the maximum average air temperature in 4 seasons in Panjin city were relatively irregular .关键词
回归分析法/5年滑动平均分析/Mann-Kendall法/盘锦Key words
Regression analysis/Moving average analysis/Mann-Kendall method/Panjin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
任智勇,赵楠,孙卓,王斌飞,张志国,翟晴飞,敖雪,牛琳琳,辛明月,赵一俊..基于回归和M－K方法的盘锦气温时间序列分析[J].江西农业学报,2015,(3):83-86,4.
