气象与环境学报Issue(3)：85-90,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2014.03.013
盘锦市脑血管病气象敏感因子分析及其预报模型
Analysis of hypersensitive meteorological factors of cerebrovascular disease and its prediction model in Panjin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the number of the cerebrovascular patients obtained from Panjin center for disease control and prevention during 2008-2009 and the synchronous meteorological data,the relationship between cerebrovascular disease and meteorological elements,a meteorological forecasting model on the cerebrovascular disease incidence trend was established by methods of a correlative analysis and a stepwise regression.The results indicate that there is a relatively good correlation between the meteorological elements and the moving average of the number of the cerebrovascular patients in the coming three days.The impacts of the meteorological factors on the number of the cerebrovascular patients have the hysteresis and persistency effects.The number of the cerebrovascular patients has obvious correlation with the meteorological elements such as the daily minimum air temperature,average air tem-perature,the minimum pressure,average wind speed,humidity,and the maximum daily temperature range and so on.The number of the cerebrovascular patients is affected by different hypersensitive meteorological factors in dif-ferent seasons,and the correlations between them differ greatly.The tests have shown that the accurate rates of the cerebrovascular disease incidence trend model are relatively high.关键词
脑血管病/气象因子/预报模型Key words
Cerebrovascular disease/Meteorological factors/Prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
杨文艳,袁潮,孙卓,白如玉,王斌飞..盘锦市脑血管病气象敏感因子分析及其预报模型[J].气象与环境学报,2014,(3):85-90,6.基金项目
辽宁省气象局2009年科研课题“盘锦公共卫生气象条件研究”资助。 （）
