林业经济问题Issue(4)：307-312,6.
林农贷款为什么难？倡--基于动态博弈模型的分析
Why Is It So Difficult for Forest Farmers to Take Out Loans?---Based on the dynamic game model
摘要
Abstract
In order to explain why forest farmers getting loans is so difficult, this paper, firstly, uses an incomplete information dynamic game model to analyze the game relationship between banks and forest farmers when forest farmers apply for loans; then uses a complete information dynamic game model to analyze for the game relationship between banks and forest farmers when forest farmers repay the loans.At last, this paper get some conclusions, such as: since the expected net return of forest farmers'loans is positive, both the low-risk and high-risk foresters are willing to apply for bank loans;however, there is little willingness of banks to lend money to forest farmers because of such factors as the high risk of forestry investment, the information asymmetry between the foresters and the banks, the low camouflage cost of high-risk foresters, the lack of proper mortgage, the underdeveloped mar-ket of mortgage and government intervention.Therefore, some suggestions could be put forward: im-proving government guarantee systems, reinforcing credit systems of forestry, building insurance sys-tems of forest and developing transference market of forest right.关键词
林农/银行贷款/贷款难/动态博弈模型Key words
forest farmer/bank loan/difficulty in loan/dynamic game model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
宁攸凉,宁泽逵..林农贷款为什么难？倡--基于动态博弈模型的分析[J].林业经济问题,2015,(4):307-312,6.基金项目
中国林科院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（CAFYBB2014QA017）、陕西省青年科技新星计划项目 （）
