煤田地质与勘探Issue(4)：44-49,54,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2014.04.010
改进的灰色系统理论预测矿井涌水量
Prediction of mine water inflow with modified grey system theory
摘要
Abstract
Based on the present status that the coal resources of many coal mine districts are becoming exhausted and the immense changes of aging mine water inflow in East China, this paper improves a new model(GM(1,1)- Markov-Information Renewal combination model) for forecasting mine water inflow and a comprehensive evaluation index(Z) for verifying the prediction by combination model. Verification results of models show that the combination model is superior to other models, because it reduces the error caused by the volatility of the serial data and the differences when replacing the old and new information, and can solve the impact of some uncertain factors(such as water-inrush accidentally and residual water burst, etc.) which affect prediction accuracy and dependability of aging coal mine water inflow over a long time span. The combination model and other models are used for forecasting mine water inflow of Jinggezhuang Mine of Kailuan Group, the results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of GM(1,1)-Markov-Information Renewal combination model is the highest(Z=0.475), and the predictive inflow values of mine water inflow in 2011-2015 will be 13.055 m3/min, 12.730 m3/min, 12.579 m3/min, 12.493 m3/min and 12.503 m3/min respectively.关键词
矿井涌水量/灰色系统理论/组合模型/综合评价指数Key words
mine water inflow/grey system theory/combination model/comprehensive evaluation index分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
朱愿福,王长申,李彦周,潘扎荣,张亚平..改进的灰色系统理论预测矿井涌水量[J].煤田地质与勘探,2014,(4):44-49,54,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(50974115) （50974115）
