南京大学学报（自然科学版）Issue(1)：187-196,10.DOI:10.13232/j.cnki.jnju.2015.01.026
有效的社会媒体热点话题传播模型研究
Efficiently modeling information propagation of hot topics in social medias
摘要
Abstract
Hot topics on interactive social media websites enormously affect the incidence and development of the various events in both virtual and real world.Modeling and predicting information propagation process of hot topics are very important but difficult research problems.In this paper,characteristics of participants in hot topics are deeply analyzed.As a result,user activity degree,user popularity degree and user re-entrance probability are defined. The assumptions of traditional information propagation models of hot topics are relaxed according to two features in a hot topic:one user could participate the same topic many times and different users have different activity degrees. According two types of propagation patterns of hot topics,two effective models are proposed based on user participation probability.The first modelis used to model the single peak propagation pattern topics and the second mode is used to model multi-peaks propagation pattern topics.Two datasets are selected from popular social media websites and comprehensive experiments are conducted.Two models proposed in this paper and SpikeM model are implemented for comparative study.The experimental results show that the models proposed in this paper can effectively simulate single peak propagation pattern and multi-peaks propagation pattern of hot topics.Especially,the models proposed in this paper outperform SpikeM model for fitting topics with complex rise-fall propagation patterns.Furthermore,the models can accurately predict future propagation patterns of hot topics in real datasets.关键词
热点话题/时间序列/传染病模型/传播模型Key words
hot topic/time series/epidemic model/propagation model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
韩忠明,张梦,李梦琪,莫倩,刘鹂..有效的社会媒体热点话题传播模型研究[J].南京大学学报（自然科学版）,2015,(1):187-196,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(61170112),北京市属高等学校科学技术与研究生教育创新工程建设项目(PXM2012_014213_000037) （61170112）
