摘要
Abstract
The Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring&defence areas in the eastern part of China.Since 1846,M≥6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region.The main orderly values are 74-75 a,57-58 a,11-12 a and 5-6 a,wherein 74-75 a and 57-58 a carries an outstanding predictive role.According to the information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo,we conceived the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea and the whole research region. Based on this,we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made trend prediction of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the future.The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about year 2042;and the first M≥6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around year 2053,with the likely location in the area of the South Yellow Sea;furthermore,the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around year 2058 and 2070.关键词
江苏-南黄海地区/地震活动分幕/强震链/信息有序网络结构/M≥6强震预测Key words
Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region/division of seismic period/strong earthquake chains/imformational ordered network structure/prediction of M≥6 strong earthquake分类
天文与地球科学
