南水北调与水利科技Issue(1)：82-87,6.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2014.01082
水文集合预报研究与应用综述
Review of Research and Application of Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Compared with the tradit ional determined hydrologic forecast, hydrologic ensemble forecast contains various uncertain-ties in the hydrologic forecast processes. Therefore, the accuracy and validity of hydrologic forecasthave been improved theoret i-cally. Meanwhile, the cognitive and predictive capabilities of the events such as storm, flood, and droughthave been enhanced in the practical applications. The hydrologic ensemble forecast can provide more accurate and useful information in flood cont rol, drought relief, and sustainable w ater resources management. In this paper, we firstly reviewed the history of hydrologic ensem-ble forecast, and then we summarized the research progresses in theory, methods, as well as the applications and operat ional hydrologic ensemble forecast. We focused on two research aspects of the pre-processing and post-processing issues in an effort to provide a useful platform for the development of hydrologic ensemble prediction. T he perspectives and recommendations on this subject were provided. This paper is of important significance in the future development of hydrologic ensemble forecast re-search.关键词
水文集合预报/不确定性信息/水文集合前处理/水文集合后处理Key words
hydrologic ensemble prediction/uncertainty/hydrologic ensemble pre-processing/hydrologic ensemble post-processing分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
徐静,叶爱中,毛玉娜,邓学..水文集合预报研究与应用综述[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,(1):82-87,6.基金项目
长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目( CKWV2012324/ KY) （ CKWV2012324/ KY）
国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAB05B04) （2013BAB05B04）
