南水北调与水利科技Issue(1)：131-134,4.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2014.01131
小型水库安全运行风险的不确定性分析
Uncertainty Analysis of the Risk in the Safe Operation of Small Reservoirs
摘要
Abstract
There are a number of small reservoirs in China, but they are in poor security situation w ith the lack of effective secur-ity monitoring and out-of-date management, therefore they have high risk in safe operation. Over the years, the security identifi-cation for reservoirs mainly f ocuses on qualitative evaluation, and the quantitat ive assessment of operation risk and impact on dow nstream properties of dangerous reservoirs are missing. The operation risk of smal reservoirs varies and remains uncertain, and the uncertainty is often interactive and interdependent. In this paper, the uncert ainty of operat ion risk was considered as a grey system, and the grey theory and stochast ic probabilit y method w ere combined to develop the power function. The modified first-order second-moment method can convert the calculation of grey-stochastic probability into the calculation of general sto-chastic probability, which can better quant ify the uncertaint y of operation risk of reservoirs. The case studies of application of the above met hod demonst rate that the calculation can provide good guidance for the safe operat ion and reinforcement of small reservoirs.关键词
水库运行风险/不确定性/灰色理论/改进的一次二阶矩法Key words
operation risk of reservoir/uncertainty/grey theory/modified first-order second-moment method分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
喻蔚然..小型水库安全运行风险的不确定性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,(1):131-134,4.基金项目
江西省水利厅科技资助项目( KT 201207) （ KT 201207）
