农业资源与环境学报Issue(3)：233-236,4.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2014.0071
粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅴ.粮食潜力实现率及其评价方法
The Theory, Method and Its Application of the Grain Yield ForecastⅤ. The Conversion Rate of Grain Yield Potential and Its Evaluation
摘要
Abstract
To illustrate the relationship between grain yield potential and yield estimation, the concept of conversion rate of grain yield po-tential was defined. It was the percentage of the actual yield value or could be achieved value compared with the forecast value of the grain yield potential. The forecast potential value was combined with the estimation value or the actual yield value of the year, which could be used to evaluate the actual degree yield potential achieved. And the climatic year type could be reflected. The results of application showed that per unit yield and total yield potential conversion rate were around 100%in 2010, which indicated the progress of science and technology to the production still played a supporting role. But the per unit yield and total yield potential conversion rate was less than 100%from 1999 to 2008, which showed the progress of science and technology to the yield function was reducing. Therefore, the conversion rate of grain yield potential could be used to evaluate the trend of grain yield and the contribution of technological progress, and the method was practical and with low error.关键词
粮食潜力/估产/潜力实现率/评价/预测Key words
grain yield potential/grain estimating/conversion rate of production potential/evaluation/forecast分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
黄治平,任军,王新民,侯显达,蔡彦明,王铄今,侯彦林,米长虹,刘书田,郑宏艳,王农,夏维..粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅴ.粮食潜力实现率及其评价方法[J].农业资源与环境学报,2014,(3):233-236,4.基金项目
中国农业科学院科技创新工程 （）
