气象Issue(4)：424-432,9.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.04.004
ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式降水预报能力的对比分析
Comparative Analysis of Precipitation Forecasting Capabilities of ECMWF and Japan High-Resolution Models
摘要
Abstract
By using precipitation data collected every six hours by 2419 stations from April 1 to March 31 in 2013,precipitation forecast data of ECMWF and Japan high resolution model,and hourly rainfall data fu-sion by CMORPH (NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)satellites and more than 30 thou-sand automatic stations based on contingency table and Taylor diagram statistical method,the precipitation forecasting capabilites of ECMWF and Japan high-resolution model by every 6 h,12 h,24 h segment are comparatively analysed.The results show that:(1 )Generally,ECMWF has an advantage over Japan high-resolution model whose forecast dispersion is a bit larger.However,the forecast of ECMWF is rela-tive steady,agreeing more with the observation.(2 )The precipitation frequency predicted in weather forecasting by the two models is higher than the real case while the forecast of rainstorm frequency is lower than it.However as piecewise intervals increase,this situation is improved.(3 )The 6 h fractional precipi-tation weather forecast score by ECMWF is lower than by the Japan model while the 12 h and 24 h fractional precipitation weather forecast scores of ECMWF are higher than those of Japan model,but its rainstorm forecast scores are all higher than those of the Japan model.(4)By changing forecast bias using threshold adjustment,the forecasting skill scores are improved to some extent.(5 )Regarding the spatial distribution,the model can forecast precipitation more reasonably in coastal areas than in the northwestern area.关键词
高分辨率模式/降水预报/泰勒图Key words
high resolution model/precipitation forecast/Taylor diagram分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张宏芳,潘留杰,杨新..ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式降水预报能力的对比分析[J].气象,2014,(4):424-432,9.基金项目
中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2014-070）、陕西省气象局科技创新基金（2013M-37）和陕西省气象局预报员专项（2013Y-9）共同资助 （）
