气象Issue(7)：886-890,5.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.07.013
有效雨量和滑坡泥石流灾害概率模型
Study on the Relation Between Effective Precipitation and Landslide/Debris-Flow with Probabilistic Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the assessment of susceptibility degree,the geology circumstance,geographic back-ground and climatic factors,the zonation of the landslide and debris flow is carried out.And the research area is divided into 6 sub-regions:the western part of Loess Plateau, Qinling Mountains, Daba Mountains,Dabie Mountains,Luoxiao Mountains,and Zhejiang-Fujian coast.The plotting of effective precipitation and landslide/debris-flow shows that effective precipitation is among a certain range instead of a critical value.The probabilistic model is adopted to describe the probabilistic relations between effective precipitation and landslide/debris-flow.Correlation coefficient is calculated to evaluate the model.The re-sult shows that effective precipitation and frequency of landslide/debris-flow are normally distributed.The parameters of probabilistic model can be estimated and probability density function can be plotted.The precipitation model indicates that for each region the effective precipitation is quantitatively corresponding to the frequency of landslide/debris-flow hazard.Moreover,the plotting shows that the effective precipita-tion increases from northwest to south east of China.关键词
滑坡泥石流/有效雨量/概率模型/易发程度评价/区划Key words
landslide/debris-flow/effective precipitation/probabilistic model/assessment of susceptibility degree/zonation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张国平..有效雨量和滑坡泥石流灾害概率模型[J].气象,2014,(7):886-890,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（40971016）资助 （）
