气象Issue(12)：1549-1557,9.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.12.014
2013年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定
Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2013
摘要
Abstract
Operational positioning,track and intensity forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TCs)over west-ern North Pacific in 2013 are evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI’s Best-track dataset.Meanwhile,the systematic biases of both global and regional models in track and intensity forecasts are analyzed.The re-sults show that the performance of TC positioning is a little better than that in previous years,with an av-erage error by all methods is 21.7 km.The average track forecast errors by the subjective methods of each province or autonomous regions are 80.2 km (24 h),143.3 km (48 h)and 221.7 km (72 h),which are re-duced by 13.9%,13.4% and 20.9% compared to those in 2012.And the 24 h track forecast error of Na-tional Meteorological Centre (NMC)of CMA is less than 90 km for the first time.Global and regional models have steady improvement in the performance of track forecast,however,the models also display specific systematic biases.The overall performance of statistical forecast method is still better than numer-ical prediction method in intensity forecast.In the numerical prediction methods,the performance of re-gional models is slightly better than global models.Some global and regional models also have systematic biases in intensity prediction.The subjective methods predict well the 24 h landfall location of Typhoon 1308 “Cimaron”,but are not so good for Typhoon 1306 “Rumbia”,Typhoon 1311 “Utor”,Typhoon 1312 “Trami”and Typhoon 1323 “Fitow”.关键词
热带气旋/精度评定/定位误差/路径误差/强度误差Key words
tropical cyclone (TC)/verification/positioning error/track error/intensity error分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈国民,曹庆..2013年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定[J].气象,2014,(12):1549-1557,9.基金项目
上海市气象局科技开发项目（MS201403）和国家自然科学基金项目（41275067、41305049、41475058和41405060）共同资助 （）
