气象Issue(1)：45-51,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.01.005
GFS对我国南方两次持续性降水过程的预报技巧评估
Assessment on Forecasting Skills of GFS Model for Two Persistent Rainfalls over Southern China
摘要
Abstract
This study aims at assessing the predictability capacity of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) for the atmospheric circulation features and precipitation over East Asia during 11-31 July 2012 by using the GFS data and the extracted components of long wave and ultra-long wave via the harmonic filtering. The results show that the GFS model can predict the mid and lower heights over East Asia with reliable lead time of 6 d,and up to 10 d for the higher heights.The predictability for long wave and ultra-long wave components is more significant,of which the 5-8 wave-band forecast is better than the 3-6 wave one in terms of the forecasting skill for height.However,the forecast result is reversed for the wind filed. In addition,the predictability of the model for the two persistent rainfalls maintains 8 d or so,and moreo-ver it can tell the location of severe rainfall band ahead of 2 d.In general,the GFS model is stronger in forecasting the persistent precipitation process than the observed fields.关键词
GFS/滤波/大气环流场/持续性降水/误差/评分Key words
global forecasting system (GFS)/filtering/atmospheric circulation features/persistent rain-fall/error/score分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
董颜,刘寿东,王东海,赵艳风..GFS对我国南方两次持续性降水过程的预报技巧评估[J].气象,2015,(1):45-51,7.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2012CB417204）、公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201006014和GYHY201206039）和国家自然科学基金项目（40875022和41175064）共同资助 （）
