气象Issue(1)：52-58,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.01.006
对流温度在局地热对流降水预报中的应用
Application of Convective Temperature in Local Thermal Convective Precipitation Forecasting
摘要
Abstract
Thermal convective precipitation (TCP)is a usual weather phenomenon under subtropical high. TCP always occurs suddenly with small temporal and spacial scales,and it is a difficult point in the current weather forecasting operations.In this article,the convective temperature (Tc )is used to forecast TCP. First,the algorithm of Tc in MICAPS 3 is improved,and then the sounding and surface observation data from Nanjing Station in July and August during 2004-2013 are used to discuss the feasibility of forcasting TCP depending on Tc under the control of subtropical high.The results show that,the average probability of TCP occurrence at Nanj ing Station is 1/6 .The probability of TCP occurrence increases and then decrea-ses with the change of temperature difference between the day high temperature Tmax and Tc .When Tmax-Tc is smaller than -0 .5℃,the probability of occurrence is lower than average probability.When Tmax-Tc is 0 .5 to 1 .5℃,the probability of TCP occurrence is the highest,reaching 40%.The two requirements for TCP occurrence under the control of subtropical high are Tmax>30℃and Tmax-Tc> -3 .5℃.In addi-tion,statistics of 34 TCP cases show that TCP mainly occurs from 13:00-18:00 BT every day and its duration is 50 min averagely with the mean precipitation being 7.8 mm.关键词
对流温度/副热带高压/热对流降水/地面露点Key words
convective temperature/subtropical high/thermal convective precipitation/surface dew point分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
束宇,姜有山,张志刚..对流温度在局地热对流降水预报中的应用[J].气象,2015,(1):52-58,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（41305051）、江苏省气象局预报员专项项目（201208）和国家科技支撑计划项目（2011BAK21B04）共同资助 （）
