气象Issue(4)：464-473,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.04.009
大连地区冬季降水相态的预报方法初探
Preliminary Study About the Forecasting of Winter Precipitation Types in Dalian
摘要
Abstract
Using the surface and air sounding observation data of winter precipitation in Dalian from 2003 to 2012,we obtained the maximum and minimum factors which were used to judge the precipitation types and classified as “MAX class”and “MIN class”to analyse and discuss the precipitation process dynamically. During the process of discussing the factors which affect the precipitation types in winter of Dalian,the method of the mean temperature of layers was used to research the precipitation types.Comparing it with the method before,which use the temperature of single layer or the thickness of layer,we considered the evaluation results of all factors,and found using the factors which belong to the category of mean tempera-ture are better than the factors of other categories.The mean temperature of the conventional isobaric sur-faces is easy to compute,suitable for the operation of weather forecasting.In addition,we also designed a“step-expel method”and use it to validate the winter precipitation types in Dalian 2013,on the basis of the surface and air sounding data of Dalian,and have obtained ideal results.Then we used the GSM grid data of Japanese mathematical forecast in 2013 to simulate the weather prediction,getting good results.关键词
冬季降水/相态识别/平均气温/预报方法Key words
winter precipitation/type identification/mean temperature/forecasting method分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
隋玉秀,杨景泰,王健,周美娥,肖剑,王丽娜,卞若玢..大连地区冬季降水相态的预报方法初探[J].气象,2015,(4):464-473,10.基金项目
大连市气象局科学技术研究项目（DLQK201306）资助 （）
