气象Issue(4)：474-479,6.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.04.010
昆明冬季降水相态识别判据研究
Study on Identification Criterion for Precipitation Phase in Winter Kunming
摘要
Abstract
Based on precipitation and weather phenomena data from Kunming Station in winter from 1 9 5 2 to 2013,the climatic characteristics of winter snowfall in Kunming are analyzed.In addition,using surface and upper air data,six physical quantities such as temperature at 500 and 700 hPa,0℃ level height,geo-potential thickness between 500 and 700 hPa,daily lowest and average temperature at surface are selected. The phase of precipitation and snow is analyzed,by using the principle of highest TS score to determine physical quantities’threshold range.Different weights are offered to each criterion,using weight linear method to set synthetic criterion of snowfall,through different combined experiments on snowfall criterion of six physical quantities,and considering the operational application of synthetic criterion.Finally,three single criterions are selected,that is,temperature at 700 hPa,geopotential thickness between 500 and 700 hPa and daily lowest temperature at surface,and combined into synthetic criterion.In addition the precipi-tation phases during 13 rainfall weather processes in 2014 are tested by using WRF model.The results show that synthetic criterion could provide valuable reference for obj ective forecast of precipitation phase in winter,Kunming.关键词
降水相态/综合判据/预报方法Key words
precipitation phase/synthetic criterion/forecast method分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
许美玲,梁红丽,金少华,马志敏,牛法宝,闵颖..昆明冬季降水相态识别判据研究[J].气象,2015,(4):474-479,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（41365006）和中国气象局南方暴雨预报专家创新团队项目共同资助 （）
