气象科技进展Issue(2)：24-28,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2015.02.004
2013年中国夏季降水动力-统计气候预测及检验分析探讨
Analysis of and Discussion about Dynamic-Statistical Climate Prediction for Summer Rainfall of 2013 in China
摘要
Abstract
The precipitation anomaly distribution over China in the summer of 2013 was seen by the phenomenon of lfooding in north and drought in south. More rainfall occurred in northeast China, north China, the eastern Sichuan basin and the most of the northwest China, while less rainfall occurred from the Huaihe river basin to the south of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and it also occurred over Tibetan Plateau. Both the dynamic-statistical prediction (DSP) and dynamic statistical-diagnostic prediction (DSDP) have made the approximately correct forecast for the situation of the lfood in north and drought in the Yangtze River. The predictive score (PS) is 71 and 74 respectively, while the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is 0.09 and 0.20 respectively. The DSP results of 500hPa height anomalies ifeld in the areas of western Paciifc subtropical high, Eurasian blocking high and northeast China cold vortex are ideal, which provided the basis for diagnostic prediction of the summer drought and lfood distribution. Finally, the existing problems of DSP were discussed and we pointed out the possible solutions.关键词
夏季降水/高度距平场/动力-统计预测/动力统计-诊断预测Key words
summer Rainfall/height anomalies ifeld/dynamic-statistical prediction/dynamic statistical-diagnostic prediction引用本文复制引用
赵俊虎,杨杰,龚志强,封国林..2013年中国夏季降水动力-统计气候预测及检验分析探讨[J].气象科技进展,2015,(2):24-28,5.基金项目
气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目（CMAGJ2014Z09）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306021）；国家重点基础研究发展计划 （）
