气象学报Issue(2)：277-290,14.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.025
CMIP5模式对西太平洋副热带高压的模拟和预估
Simulations and projections of the western Pacific subtropical high in CMIP5 models
摘要
Abstract
This work examined the performance of 26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercompari-son Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)in the simulation of the present-day temporal variability and spatial pattern of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH).Results show that most models are able to capture the spatial distribution and variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height and zonal wind fields in the western subtropical Pacific,with the underestimation of the mean intensi-ties of WPSH.The underestimation may be associated with the cold bias of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans in the models.To eliminate the impact of the climatology biases,the climatology of these models is re-placed by that of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in the verification.It is noted that at interdecadal time scales,the models repro-duce the shift of WPSH with enhancement and westward extension after the late 1970s.According to assessment of the simula-tions of the WPSH indices,it is found that some models (CNRM-CM5,FGOALS-g2,FIO-ESM,MIROC-ESM and MPI-ESM-P)are better than others in simulating WPSH.Then the ensemble mean of these better models are used to project the fu-ture changes of WPSH under three typical Representation Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP8.5,RCP4.5,RCP2.6).It is suggested that the WPSH enlarges and strengthens,and its position extends westward under the scenarios,with the largest linear growth trend in RCP8.5,smallest in RCP2.6,and in between in RCP4.5;while the ridge line of WPSH does not show obvious long-term trend.These results may have implications for the attribution and prediction of climate variations and chan-ges in East Asia.关键词
CMIP5/西太平洋副热带高压/模拟和预估/典型浓度路径情景Key words
CMIP5/Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH)/Simulation and projection/RCP scenarios分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘芸芸,李维京,左金清,胡增臻..CMIP5模式对西太平洋副热带高压的模拟和预估[J].气象学报,2014,(2):277-290,14.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（2010CB950501、2013CB430202）、国家自然科学基金项目（41005037）、公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306024、GYHY20130633）。 （）
