气象学报Issue(3)：628-637,10.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.018
对流温度含义阐释及部分示意图隐含悖论成因分析与预报应用
摘要
Abstract
The convective temperature is commonly used to the analysis and prediction of local convection,while the convective condensation level (CCL)is often used to estimate the base height of local convective cloud.There is certain precondition when the convective temperature and CCL are utilized to analyze local convection,and its inherent physical meaning is abundant.In this paper,thermodynamic diagrams of the convective temperature in the several classical books are analyzed,and some implicit mistakes are pointed out,which includes violating elementary knowledge of the atmospheric stability,opposing to theory of at-mospheric energy,and conflicting with its inherent meaning.It is further pointed out that not being strict,and not knowing the inherent meaning of convective temperature thoroughly are the main factors in the process of making convective temperature diagram which cause these mistakes.A new diagram of convective temperature is constructed in this paper,with clearly physical meaning and more correspondingly to the basic meteorological theory.Observation data is employed to analyze the basic characteristics of convective clouds in summer Beijing,including occurrence numbers of convective clouds and occurrence time.Attempt is made to predict both the genesis and base height of convective cloud by using the convective temperature and CCL respectively.The results show that there ex-ists some indicative significance of convective temperature as to local convection,and CCL can reflect the cloud base height of convective cloud to certain extent.The critical success index (CSI)reaches 45% when the difference between the maximum temperature and the convective temperature no more than 1℃ is assigned to be the judgment of local convection development.关键词
对流温度/对流凝结高度/示意图/隐含悖论/局地对流Key words
Convective temperature/Convective condensation level/Thermodynamic diagram/Implicit mistakes/Local con-vection分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李耀东,刘健文,吴洪星,史小康..对流温度含义阐释及部分示意图隐含悖论成因分析与预报应用[J].气象学报,2014,(3):628-637,10.基金项目
资助课题国家自然科学基金项目（41175046、41205009）。 （）
