气象学报Issue(4)：678-689,12.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.049
南海台风模式对“海燕”移动路径的预报
The track of Typhoon "Haiyan"as predicted by the typhoon model for South China Sea
摘要
Abstract
Super typhoon Haiyan (2013)was the most notable typhoon in 2013.In this study,the operational prediction of Haiyan (2013)by the Tropical Regional Model for South China Sea (TRAMS)is analyzed.The results show that the model successfully reproduces Haiyan's fast passage through the Philippines,and its northward deflection after landfall in Vietnam. There are also some shortcomings,including the predicted too weak intensity compared to the observed.An analysis of the higher-resolution model simulations indicates that the storm is also characterized by an upper-level warning core during its ma-ture stage,and a deep layer of easterly flow.Sensitivity experiments are conducted to study the impact of certain physical processes on the improvement of the typhoon forecast.The results show that appropriate boundary-layer,cumulus and oro-graphic gravity wave parameterizations,and improved initial conditions as well as increased horizontal grid resolution all help improve the intensity forecast of Haiyan.关键词
台风/路径/数值预报Key words
Typhoon/Typhoon track/Numerical weather prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈子通,张诚忠,黄燕燕,冯业荣,钟水新,戴光丰,徐道生,杨兆礼..南海台风模式对“海燕”移动路径的预报[J].气象学报,2014,(4):678-689,12.基金项目
资助课题公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206010）、广东科技计划项目（2012A061400012、2011A032100006）。 （）
