气象学报Issue(6)：1155-1170,16.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2014.072
北半球温带气旋的模拟和预估研究Ⅰ∶6个 CMIP5耦合模式模拟能力的检验
A study of simulation and prediction of extratropical cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere partⅠ:Verification of simulation performance of the 6 CMIP5 coupled models
摘要
Abstract
Simulation performance of the 6 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)coupled models,in terms of activity frequency,numbers,central pressure,life span,traveling distance,and deepening rate of extratropical cyclones (ECs)over the Northern Hemisphere,were validated by comparing with the ERA¯40 reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium¯Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)during 1958—2001.The analysis result shows that:(1)the frequency distri¯ butions of life span,deepening rate and traveling distance of the ECs are found to be realistic in all the 6 models,and the linear reducing trend of central pressure of the ECs can be simulated by the models;while some system bias exist between simulation results and ERA¯40,mainly including longer lifetime and slower deepening rate in simulations.(2)All the 6 models can repro¯ duce the 2 main EC activity areas,and,among them,there are 5 models which overestimate the EC activity frequency over the eastern Europe¯central Asia,central Siberian¯western Siberian and eastern Asia continent,and all the models underestimate ac¯ tivity frequency over the region from northern Europe to central Siberian.And,(3)both the number of the total processes and strong ECs simulated by the models are less than the ERA¯40 results.The simulated decadal oscillation periods of cyclone processes are slightly longer,and the simulated decadal oscillations of central pressure are weaker.From the above,it can be seen that the CMIP5 coupled models can reproduce main features of EC activity over the Northern Hemisphere during the 44 years,but some regional and systematic deviations still remain.关键词
温带气旋/CMIP5/耦合模式/模拟能力Key words
Extratropical cyclones/CMIP5/Coupled models/Simulation performance分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张颖娴,丁一汇..北半球温带气旋的模拟和预估研究Ⅰ∶6个 CMIP5耦合模式模拟能力的检验[J].气象学报,2014,(6):1155-1170,16.基金项目
资助课题国家重点基础研究发展计划项目973计划（2010CB950404、2012CB417205和2013CB430202）、国家自然基金重点项目（41130960）、公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201406017、GYHY201406001）。 （）
