摘要
Abstract
In view of the reliability analysis method of traditional fault tree , the paper puts forward the analysis meth-od combining the fuzzy probability with bayesian network .BN model in the paper is get from FAT model , and comprehen-sive evaluation for the language variable for each root node in BN model is performed by experts , in order to figure out the precision probability of fault occurrence of each root node .Through positive-negative reasoning principle , the failure proba-bility for each leaf node and posterior failure probability for each root node are worked out , with further analysis of impor-tance of each root node .The method is used to perform reliability analysis for the brake of the bridge crane , showing very high analysis efficiency .关键词
制动器/贝叶斯网络/模糊概率/可靠性Key words
brake/bayesian network/fuzzy probability/reliability分类
交通工程
