人口与经济Issue(5)：13-22,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2014.05.002
“单独二孩政策”实施初期的出生堆积及其特点
The Coming Baby Boom after Loosening Birth Control Policy and Its Characteristic in China
摘要
Abstract
From the beginning of 2014 , China starts to ease its family planning policy , which allows couples to have a second baby if either parent is an only child .The number of the couples of childbearing age that either one is an only child , the proportion that the couples who are permitted to a second birth will really give birth , and the birth timing will be the three fundamental determinants of the post-policy-change baby boom .It is estimated that the couples of childbearing age that either one is an only child are 20 million in the early 2014 in the whole country , the 60% of them will actually give the second birth in a couple of year after the policy change , that will result in a sharp rise of birth.The influence of birth control policy on fertility is deferent in urban and rural area for different women .In order to avoid too large baby boom , some measures should be take to keep off both “policy-loosening caused fertility rise” and “loss of control fertility rise”.关键词
单独二孩政策/计划生育/出生堆积Key words
the “couples to have a second baby if either is an only child ” policy/family planning/baby boom分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
石人炳..“单独二孩政策”实施初期的出生堆积及其特点[J].人口与经济,2014,(5):13-22,10.基金项目
华中科技大学985建设项目“中国生育政策调整与人口结构变化研究”。 （）
