人口与经济Issue(6)：35-43,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2014.06.004
中国人口红利真的结束了吗？
Is the Demographic Dividend Really Ending in China?
摘要
Abstract
This paper analysis two kinds of demographic dividend based on literature, then judge the existence of China’ s demographic dividend by the trend of labor resource. The results show: the workingage population in China reached the peak of 940 millions in 2012 , and will keep above 800 millions until the mid 2040 s, and the percent of the workingage population will hold above 60 before 2030 s. The workingage population is ageing, and the human capital of it gradually increases. Thus, China’ s first demographic dividend is turning from agglomeration to reducing, and we gradually gain the structural demographic dividend. However, it will be more difficult to gain the demographic dividend, which depends on human capital and institutional reform.关键词
人口红利/劳动年龄人口/人力资本Key words
demographic dividend/workingage population/human capital分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
原新,刘厚莲..中国人口红利真的结束了吗？[J].人口与经济,2014,(6):35-43,9.基金项目
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题招标项目“老龄化对中国经济发展的影响及应对策略研究”（13JZD005）。 （）
