人口与经济Issue(1)：11-21,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2015.01.002
合理退休年龄影响因素的理论分析及实证研究
Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of the Optimal Retirement Age
朱波1
作者信息
- 1. 山西财经大学 统计学院，山西 太原030006
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
This paper adopts multiple regression model to analysis the effect of population, economics and pension system on the retirement age of the world in 2011 , and predicts the optimal retirement age in China based on the empirical result. The empirical result shows that: aging, life expectancy, economic level, economic structure as well as pension system etc have a significant effect on the retirement age; In China, the optimal retirement of male should be 60. 84 and while it is supposed to be 57. 62 for female and which is later than the current statutory retirement age. If the current pension system does not change in next three decades, the optimal retirement age of male <br> will be 62. 19 and 63. 75 respectively in 2020 and 2030 and which of female will be 59. 61 and 61. 33 respectively. So that it is inevitable to delay retirement in the future.关键词
退休年龄/老龄化/预期寿命Key words
retirement age/aging/life expectancy分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
朱波..合理退休年龄影响因素的理论分析及实证研究[J].人口与经济,2015,(1):11-21,11.
