人口与经济Issue(1)：49-63,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2015.01.005
我国全年龄段人口平均预期寿命的动态演变
Dynamic Evolution of All Ages Life Expectancies in China
摘要
Abstract
In the present paper we elaborate thoroughly the dynamic evolutions of all ages (0-100+years old ) mortality rates and all ages life expectancy for male, female and total population respectively for China mainland 1994 -2060 and Taiwan province 1970 -2060 , based on three applications of Lee⁃Carter model, i.e. fitting and forecasting all ages mortality rates, calculating all ages life expectancy, and constructing dynamic life tables. We further discuss the effectiveness of <br> the forecasted results in Lee⁃Carter model, with sufficient mortality data in Taiwan province and limited mortality data in China mainland. The study results show that the mortality improvements and increases of life expectancy of female are significantly higher than those of male, and this difference in gender will continue consistently in the next 50 years. The differences of both the mortality rates and life expectancy of all ages have obviously been narrowing between China mainland and Taiwan province , and the mortality rates will show the tendency of convergence development in the future for male and female. This convergence can provide some theoretical basis for quantification and management of China’ s longevity risks, for formulation and improvement of related policies, and for design and optimization of system.关键词
死亡率改善/平均预期寿命/动态死亡率模型/动态生命表/趋同化发展Key words
mortality improvements/life expectancy/dynamic mortality rates models/dynamic life tables/convergence development分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
段白鸽..我国全年龄段人口平均预期寿命的动态演变[J].人口与经济,2015,(1):49-63,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于相依结构的多元索赔金评估随机性方法研究”（71401041）；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“非寿险随机性索赔准备金评估统计模型与方法”（14YJCZH025）；国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究”（11＆ZD073）；中国博士后科学基金项目“动态死亡率建模与长寿风险量化研究”（2014M550206）。 （）
