人口与经济Issue(2)：1-10,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2015.02.001
队列视角的中国人口内在增长水平研究--基于终身生育率两种估计方法的比较
A Study of Intrinsic Population Growth in China in the Perspective of Cohort:Based on the Comparison of Two Approaches Estimating CFR
摘要
Abstract
This paper concludes that the method estimating CFR based on the mean childbearing age at the first birth provides a better estimate compared with that based on TFR statistics in backward “forecasting”, and more stable estimates in forward forecasting. The estimates from the 2 approaches both indicate that the intrinsic rate of natural growth has become negative since women entering their childbearing age in the early 1970s, and continued to decline subsequently. The minimum replacement level required to keep population constant is calculated at the level higher than 2�1 acknowledged widely because of the higher male⁃female birth ratio. Chinese population continues to grow after 1970, due to growth in life expectancy, and relatively high ration of women child⁃bearing to the total. We should pay attention to both the number of birth also the population structure in the future. In addition, the timing of first birth cannot be ignored because of its impact on total number of children a woman may have in whole life.关键词
初育年龄/去进度效应总和生育率/终身生育率/人口内在自然增长率Key words
the mean childbearing age at first birth/total fertility rate without tempo effect/completed fertility rate/intrinsic rate of natural increase分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
钟甫宁,王亚楠..队列视角的中国人口内在增长水平研究--基于终身生育率两种估计方法的比较[J].人口与经济,2015,(2):1-10,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作与交流项目“人口变化，城乡人口流动，和中国的农业与农村发展”（71361140370）；江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD）。 （）
